Daily

Column

Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) Aug 31, Sept 14, Sept 28 and Jan 31, Feb 14, Feb 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 11 2021 11336 50445 379 105 80 115
April 12 2021 11338 50468 379 105 66 117
April 13 2021 11344 50537 380 105 69 117
April 14 2021 11354 50585 380 105 65 107
April 15 2021 11361 50675 382 105 72 105
April 16 2021 11373 50709 383 106 77 101
April 17 2021 11383 50799 384 106 77 108
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.4 5.2% 4 0.03% 5 0.04%
10-19 3 2.3 29.9% 23 0.17% 30 0.22%
20-29 3 1.7 20.8% 16 0.08% 27 0.13%
30-39 3 1.4 19.5% 15 0.11% 22 0.16%
40-49 0 0.6 7.8% 6 0.06% 10 0.1%
50-59 1 0.7 9.1% 7 0.06% 8 0.06%
60-69 0 0.4 6.5% 5 0.04% 5 0.04%
70+ 0 0.1 1.3% 1 0.01% 1 0.01%
All ages 10 7.7 100% 77 0.07% 108 0.1%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 11 2021 7222 29639 242 94 40 48
April 12 2021 7222 29659 243 94 37 48
April 13 2021 7236 29690 243 94 51 55
April 14 2021 7249 29733 244 94 64 67
April 15 2021 7258 29786 246 94 73 76
April 16 2021 7259 29806 247 94 62 74
April 17 2021 7263 29854 247 94 59 78
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.4 10.2% 6 0.08% 7 0.09%
10-19 2 1.1 16.9% 10 0.12% 15 0.18%
20-29 1 0.9 15.3% 9 0.13% 12 0.17%
30-39 1 1.0 16.9% 10 0.12% 13 0.15%
40-49 0 1.4 25.4% 15 0.19% 18 0.23%
50-59 0 0.6 6.8% 4 0.04% 5 0.05%
60-69 0 0.1 5.1% 3 0.04% 4 0.05%
70+ 0 0.3 3.4% 2 0.03% 4 0.06%
All ages 4 5.9 100% 59 0.09% 78 0.12%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 11 2021 5602 19637 252 76 75 90
April 12 2021 5605 19653 253 76 73 89
April 13 2021 5608 19664 254 76 67 91
April 14 2021 5614 19697 256 76 63 90
April 15 2021 5625 19719 257 76 74 98
April 16 2021 5635 19738 257 76 79 103
April 17 2021 5637 19766 257 76 68 96
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.4 8.8% 6 0.11% 8 0.15%
10-19 1 0.9 10.3% 7 0.13% 9 0.17%
20-29 1 0.6 10.3% 7 0.15% 7 0.15%
30-39 0 0.9 13.2% 9 0.17% 14 0.26%
40-49 0 0.9 13.2% 9 0.18% 18 0.36%
50-59 0 0.7 10.3% 7 0.1% 11 0.16%
60-69 0 1.6 23.5% 16 0.25% 20 0.32%
70+ 0 0.6 10.3% 7 0.11% 9 0.14%
All ages 2 6.4 100% 68 0.15% 96 0.21%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 11 2021 12515 56138 393 80 96 121
April 12 2021 12515 56187 394 80 71 121
April 13 2021 12522 56278 394 80 62 116
April 14 2021 12530 56376 394 80 62 118
April 15 2021 12537 56440 395 80 69 118
April 16 2021 12539 56494 395 80 57 95
April 17 2021 12547 56575 396 80 60 87
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 4 1.4 20% 12 0.1% 15 0.13%
10-19 -2 0.9 20% 12 0.07% 14 0.08%
20-29 1 0.6 15% 9 0.04% 17 0.08%
30-39 0 1.1 18.3% 11 0.08% 16 0.12%
40-49 2 0.6 10% 6 0.04% 7 0.05%
50-59 1 0.3 11.7% 7 0.05% 12 0.08%
60-69 1 0.0 0% 0 0% 1 0.01%
70+ 1 0.3 5% 3 0.02% 5 0.04%
All ages 8 5.1 100% 60 0.05% 87 0.07%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 11 2021 43010 335184 1341 290 860 1055
April 12 2021 43061 335530 1344 290 824 1059
April 13 2021 43107 335783 1349 290 789 1070
April 14 2021 43204 336203 1354 290 806 1135
April 15 2021 43302 336703 1361 290 827 1152
April 16 2021 43389 337107 1366 290 874 1152
April 17 2021 43441 337550 1366 292 871 1123
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 2 5.0 7% 61 0.1% 73 0.12%
10-19 14 15.7 19.1% 166 0.23% 225 0.32%
20-29 15 20.7 26.4% 230 0.22% 294 0.28%
30-39 6 11.7 14.8% 129 0.17% 167 0.22%
40-49 5 10.0 13.4% 117 0.18% 143 0.22%
50-59 5 8.7 12.5% 109 0.17% 147 0.22%
60-69 4 3.7 5.5% 48 0.09% 63 0.12%
70+ 1 1.1 1.3% 11 0.02% 11 0.02%
All ages 52 76.7 100% 871 0.16% 1123 0.21%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 11 2021 585308 2773112 28140 6677 7596 9560
April 12 2021 585710 2775891 28174 6680 7123 9666
April 13 2021 586632 2778854 28244 6690 7339 10000
April 14 2021 587561 2783730 28337 6695 7684 10366
April 15 2021 588504 2788678 28393 6698 8320 10792
April 16 2021 589213 2792707 28462 6703 8143 10626
April 17 2021 589940 2796463 28523 6711 8143 10647
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 60 51.4 7.1% 580 0.09% 742 0.12%
10-19 126 123.1 16.4% 1333 0.18% 1722 0.23%
20-29 127 131.0 17.7% 1443 0.19% 1894 0.25%
30-39 92 123.4 16.5% 1343 0.18% 1742 0.23%
40-49 94 100.1 13.7% 1115 0.16% 1484 0.21%
50-59 118 110.6 15.2% 1240 0.15% 1626 0.2%
60-69 68 65.3 8.6% 702 0.09% 937 0.12%
70+ 42 38.0 4.8% 387 0.06% 500 0.08%
All ages 727 743.0 100% 8143 0.14% 10647 0.18%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
10.3 22.1 12.9 7.7 9.9 11.5%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
12.1 5.9 2.3 14.4%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
21.2 6.4 5.6 22.6%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
7.4 8.5 8 5.1 10.9 6.8%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
20.5 31.7 28.3 76.7 68.3 16.1%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
18.3 22.8 25 743 634 16%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.66 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-05-09 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 6003"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red