Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 11 2021 | 11336 | 50445 | 379 | 105 | 80 | 115 |
| April 12 2021 | 11338 | 50468 | 379 | 105 | 66 | 117 |
| April 13 2021 | 11344 | 50537 | 380 | 105 | 69 | 117 |
| April 14 2021 | 11354 | 50585 | 380 | 105 | 65 | 107 |
| April 15 2021 | 11361 | 50675 | 382 | 105 | 72 | 105 |
| April 16 2021 | 11373 | 50709 | 383 | 106 | 77 | 101 |
| April 17 2021 | 11383 | 50799 | 384 | 106 | 77 | 108 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.4 | 5.2% | 4 | 0.03% | 5 | 0.04% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 2.3 | 29.9% | 23 | 0.17% | 30 | 0.22% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 1.7 | 20.8% | 16 | 0.08% | 27 | 0.13% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 1.4 | 19.5% | 15 | 0.11% | 22 | 0.16% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.6 | 7.8% | 6 | 0.06% | 10 | 0.1% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.7 | 9.1% | 7 | 0.06% | 8 | 0.06% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.4 | 6.5% | 5 | 0.04% | 5 | 0.04% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.1 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.01% | 1 | 0.01% |
| All ages | 10 | 7.7 | 100% | 77 | 0.07% | 108 | 0.1% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 11 2021 | 7222 | 29639 | 242 | 94 | 40 | 48 |
| April 12 2021 | 7222 | 29659 | 243 | 94 | 37 | 48 |
| April 13 2021 | 7236 | 29690 | 243 | 94 | 51 | 55 |
| April 14 2021 | 7249 | 29733 | 244 | 94 | 64 | 67 |
| April 15 2021 | 7258 | 29786 | 246 | 94 | 73 | 76 |
| April 16 2021 | 7259 | 29806 | 247 | 94 | 62 | 74 |
| April 17 2021 | 7263 | 29854 | 247 | 94 | 59 | 78 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.4 | 10.2% | 6 | 0.08% | 7 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 1.1 | 16.9% | 10 | 0.12% | 15 | 0.18% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 0.9 | 15.3% | 9 | 0.13% | 12 | 0.17% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 1.0 | 16.9% | 10 | 0.12% | 13 | 0.15% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.4 | 25.4% | 15 | 0.19% | 18 | 0.23% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.6 | 6.8% | 4 | 0.04% | 5 | 0.05% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.1 | 5.1% | 3 | 0.04% | 4 | 0.05% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.3 | 3.4% | 2 | 0.03% | 4 | 0.06% |
| All ages | 4 | 5.9 | 100% | 59 | 0.09% | 78 | 0.12% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 11 2021 | 5602 | 19637 | 252 | 76 | 75 | 90 |
| April 12 2021 | 5605 | 19653 | 253 | 76 | 73 | 89 |
| April 13 2021 | 5608 | 19664 | 254 | 76 | 67 | 91 |
| April 14 2021 | 5614 | 19697 | 256 | 76 | 63 | 90 |
| April 15 2021 | 5625 | 19719 | 257 | 76 | 74 | 98 |
| April 16 2021 | 5635 | 19738 | 257 | 76 | 79 | 103 |
| April 17 2021 | 5637 | 19766 | 257 | 76 | 68 | 96 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.4 | 8.8% | 6 | 0.11% | 8 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 0.9 | 10.3% | 7 | 0.13% | 9 | 0.17% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 0.6 | 10.3% | 7 | 0.15% | 7 | 0.15% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.9 | 13.2% | 9 | 0.17% | 14 | 0.26% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.9 | 13.2% | 9 | 0.18% | 18 | 0.36% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.7 | 10.3% | 7 | 0.1% | 11 | 0.16% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1.6 | 23.5% | 16 | 0.25% | 20 | 0.32% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.6 | 10.3% | 7 | 0.11% | 9 | 0.14% |
| All ages | 2 | 6.4 | 100% | 68 | 0.15% | 96 | 0.21% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 11 2021 | 12515 | 56138 | 393 | 80 | 96 | 121 |
| April 12 2021 | 12515 | 56187 | 394 | 80 | 71 | 121 |
| April 13 2021 | 12522 | 56278 | 394 | 80 | 62 | 116 |
| April 14 2021 | 12530 | 56376 | 394 | 80 | 62 | 118 |
| April 15 2021 | 12537 | 56440 | 395 | 80 | 69 | 118 |
| April 16 2021 | 12539 | 56494 | 395 | 80 | 57 | 95 |
| April 17 2021 | 12547 | 56575 | 396 | 80 | 60 | 87 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 1.4 | 20% | 12 | 0.1% | 15 | 0.13% |
| 10-19 | -2 | 0.9 | 20% | 12 | 0.07% | 14 | 0.08% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 0.6 | 15% | 9 | 0.04% | 17 | 0.08% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 1.1 | 18.3% | 11 | 0.08% | 16 | 0.12% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 0.6 | 10% | 6 | 0.04% | 7 | 0.05% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.3 | 11.7% | 7 | 0.05% | 12 | 0.08% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 1 | 0.01% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.3 | 5% | 3 | 0.02% | 5 | 0.04% |
| All ages | 8 | 5.1 | 100% | 60 | 0.05% | 87 | 0.07% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 11 2021 | 43010 | 335184 | 1341 | 290 | 860 | 1055 |
| April 12 2021 | 43061 | 335530 | 1344 | 290 | 824 | 1059 |
| April 13 2021 | 43107 | 335783 | 1349 | 290 | 789 | 1070 |
| April 14 2021 | 43204 | 336203 | 1354 | 290 | 806 | 1135 |
| April 15 2021 | 43302 | 336703 | 1361 | 290 | 827 | 1152 |
| April 16 2021 | 43389 | 337107 | 1366 | 290 | 874 | 1152 |
| April 17 2021 | 43441 | 337550 | 1366 | 292 | 871 | 1123 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 5.0 | 7% | 61 | 0.1% | 73 | 0.12% |
| 10-19 | 14 | 15.7 | 19.1% | 166 | 0.23% | 225 | 0.32% |
| 20-29 | 15 | 20.7 | 26.4% | 230 | 0.22% | 294 | 0.28% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 11.7 | 14.8% | 129 | 0.17% | 167 | 0.22% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 10.0 | 13.4% | 117 | 0.18% | 143 | 0.22% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 8.7 | 12.5% | 109 | 0.17% | 147 | 0.22% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3.7 | 5.5% | 48 | 0.09% | 63 | 0.12% |
| 70+ | 1 | 1.1 | 1.3% | 11 | 0.02% | 11 | 0.02% |
| All ages | 52 | 76.7 | 100% | 871 | 0.16% | 1123 | 0.21% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 11 2021 | 585308 | 2773112 | 28140 | 6677 | 7596 | 9560 |
| April 12 2021 | 585710 | 2775891 | 28174 | 6680 | 7123 | 9666 |
| April 13 2021 | 586632 | 2778854 | 28244 | 6690 | 7339 | 10000 |
| April 14 2021 | 587561 | 2783730 | 28337 | 6695 | 7684 | 10366 |
| April 15 2021 | 588504 | 2788678 | 28393 | 6698 | 8320 | 10792 |
| April 16 2021 | 589213 | 2792707 | 28462 | 6703 | 8143 | 10626 |
| April 17 2021 | 589940 | 2796463 | 28523 | 6711 | 8143 | 10647 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 60 | 51.4 | 7.1% | 580 | 0.09% | 742 | 0.12% |
| 10-19 | 126 | 123.1 | 16.4% | 1333 | 0.18% | 1722 | 0.23% |
| 20-29 | 127 | 131.0 | 17.7% | 1443 | 0.19% | 1894 | 0.25% |
| 30-39 | 92 | 123.4 | 16.5% | 1343 | 0.18% | 1742 | 0.23% |
| 40-49 | 94 | 100.1 | 13.7% | 1115 | 0.16% | 1484 | 0.21% |
| 50-59 | 118 | 110.6 | 15.2% | 1240 | 0.15% | 1626 | 0.2% |
| 60-69 | 68 | 65.3 | 8.6% | 702 | 0.09% | 937 | 0.12% |
| 70+ | 42 | 38.0 | 4.8% | 387 | 0.06% | 500 | 0.08% |
| All ages | 727 | 743.0 | 100% | 8143 | 0.14% | 10647 | 0.18% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.3 | 22.1 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 11.5% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.1 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 14.4% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21.2 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 22.6% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4 | 8.5 | 8 | 5.1 | 10.9 | 6.8% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | 31.7 | 28.3 | 76.7 | 68.3 | 16.1% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.3 | 22.8 | 25 | 743 | 634 | 16% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.66 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-05-09 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 6003"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges